Pi Cycle Top Indicator

Historically accurate cycle top predictor that has identified every Bitcoin peak within 3 days using 111DMA and 350DMA×2 crossover

Pi Cycle Top Indicator

Historically accurate cycle top predictor using 111DMA and 350DMA×2

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Green line: 111-day MA (faster) | Red line: 350-day MA × 2 (slower)

⚠️ Signal: When green crosses above red = Cycle Top Warning

111-Day MA

Faster

Short-term trend

350-Day MA × 2

Slower

Long-term resistance

Accuracy

±3 days

Historical precision

Historical Performance: The Pi Cycle Top Indicator has identified every Bitcoin cycle top within 3 days of the actual peak. When the 111-day MA crosses above the 350-day MA × 2, it signals market euphoria and an imminent correction. This occurs roughly every 4 years, aligned with Bitcoin's halving cycle.

Top Predictor: 100% accuracy in identifying cycle tops within 3 days

Understanding the Pi Cycle Top Indicator

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator is one of the most accurate tools for identifying Bitcoin cycle tops. It uses two moving averages: the 111-day MA (short-term) and the 350-day MA multiplied by 2 (long-term resistance). When the faster 111-day MA crosses above the slower 350-day MA × 2, it signals that Bitcoin has reached a cycle peak.

This indicator has a perfect track record, identifying the 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycle tops within 3 days of the actual peak. The crossover occurs when market euphoria pushes short-term prices (111DMA) above long-term resistance (350DMA×2), indicating unsustainable growth and imminent correction.

The name "Pi Cycle" comes from the ratio between the two moving averages (350/111 ≈ 3.153), which is close to the mathematical constant π (3.14159). This mathematical relationship has proven remarkably reliable in timing Bitcoin market cycles.

Key Features:

• Crossover Detection: Automatically detects when 111DMA crosses above 350DMA×2, signaling potential cycle tops.
• Historical Signals: Display all historical crossover events with dates and prices for analysis.
• Current Signal Status: Real-time indication of market phase: Accumulation, Approaching Top, or Cycle Top Warning.
• Logarithmic Scale: Chart uses log scale to properly visualize exponential growth across multiple cycles.

How to Use This Indicator

For Cycle Top Identification:

When the green line (111DMA) crosses above the red line (350DMA×2), it signals a cycle top is imminent. This is the time to consider taking profits or reducing exposure.

For Risk Management:

As the two lines converge (gap narrows below 10%), increase caution and tighten stop losses. When they cross, protect capital by reducing positions.

For Entry Timing:

After a crossover signals a top, wait for the 111DMA to cross back below the 350DMA×2. This has historically marked the beginning of accumulation zones.

Combined Analysis:

Use alongside other indicators like 200-Week MA, Stock-to-Flow, and Fear & Greed Index for comprehensive market timing.

Pro Tips:

• The indicator typically signals tops 0-3 days before the actual peak
• After crossover, expect significant correction (30-85% historically)
• The lines separating again (bearish crossover) signals accumulation phase
• Works on logarithmic scale - linear scale can be misleading
• Has never had a false positive in Bitcoin's history
• Each cycle top occurs roughly every 4 years (halving cycle)
• Don't wait for perfect timing - act when signal appears

Calculation Method

The indicator calculates two simple moving averages: (1) 111-day MA of closing prices, and (2) 350-day MA of closing prices multiplied by 2. When the 111DMA crosses above the 350DMA×2, it generates a cycle top signal. The indicator uses daily candle data and requires at least 350 days of historical data for accurate calculations. Data is sourced from major exchanges and aggregated for reliability.

111

Short MA (days)

350×2

Long MA (days)

±3 days

Top Accuracy

Pi Cycle Top Indicator